One of the main reasons for this is President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s personal commitment and the leadership he is providing to the Somali security services on this matter.
He has survived three attempts on his own life by the group in his first term in office between September 2012 – February 2017. He argues that without eliminating Al-Shabaab, there can be no secure and developmental future for the Somali people. This absolutist position is directing security policy and action today in Somalia and there is better internal and international coordination across the security actors as a result.
Although Al-Shabaab resorted to intimidation tactics and violence to subjugate the local communities in the past, such as murder, false imprisonment, poisoning water wells, killing livestock and extorting agricultural production. It is the first time that a concerted united effort has been mounted because the public and government agenda has converged on ending the group’s brutal criminality across the country.
As one community elder told me: “There can be no fear because we have nothing left to fear now as we have lost everything, including our family members, livelihood, and dignity by fearing Al-Shabaab.” This feeling and common purpose between the federal government, federal member state leaders and public is the real game changer that is delivering military results on the ground.
‘Tide is turning’
The tide is certainly turning against Al-Shabaab in a dramatic and positive manner as the Somali armed forces and local community fighters, fondly known as “Macawisley,” because of their knowledge of the terrain, continue to march forward to liberate more territories. Some of these spaces haven’t seen a working government since the collapse of the Somali state in 1991, while others have now summoned the courage to push forward with the national army to liberate more areas and their fellow citizens.
As Somalia currently has five Federal Member States, Somaliland and the Capital City, the Somali forces and “Macawisley” fighters have succeeded in liberating large swathes of two Federal Member States. Operations will now focus on South West State and Jubbaland.
Although some minor tensions still exist between the Federal Government and some Federal Member States owing to political disagreements, there is unity in defeating Al-Shabaab from all Somali territories.
Alongside the obvious security benefit, there is also community pride in successfully achieving this in a society which still governs itself along a distributed clan power sharing system known as 4.5.
Regional unity ups the success
What underpins the new optimism in the fight against Al-Shabaab is that a whole new government approach has been taken to expand the fight from just a hard military confrontation to directly challenging their misleading ideological claims.
…during the most recent meeting of Frontline States Summit which took place in Mogadishu, leaders re-committed to ensuring that the fight against Al-Shabaab be on all fronts…
This is delivering results, with the retaking of the religious narrative finally led by trusted and respected Somali scholars as well as disrupting the Al-Shabaab financial lifeline by shutting down illegal extortion payments and the accounts used to channel them.
The fight against the international terrorist group Al-Shabaab has also been making progress because of the strong partnerships that the government has been able to nurture with international partners. Troop Contributing Countries to the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), some of whom are front-line states (Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti), have been on task.
In fact, during the most recent meeting of Frontline States Summit which took place in Mogadishu, leaders re-committed to ensuring that the fight against Al-Shabaab be on all fronts and carried out by all to secure the common future of all of their citizens. This, again, was a unique meeting because it was the first of its kind in Mogadishu, attended by all three Heads of States from Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
Finishing off Al-Shabaab will be a great political, socio-economic, and moral victory for Somalia and its international partners, as well as providing security, but there is still some way to go yet.
Clearly, something is on the right track at all levels in the fight against international terrorism in the country, and that’s reassuring since Somalia will have to fully transition security responsibilities from the internationally-supported ATMIS.
‘Will not go down without a fight’
The battle against Al-Shabaab is not easy and this depraved terrorist group will not go down without a fight as they have demonstrated by concentrating their efforts in bombing Mogadishu, the capital. Somalia and its international partners are not just combatting Al-Qaeda in Somalia but also smaller cells of the Islamic State (IS) which are operating in the Federal State of Puntland. One of their senior leaders, Bilal al-Sudani, was recently killed by the US forces in a helicopter raid.
There is also the vital matter of planning and financing the huge stabilisation effort that will be needed in the newly liberated areas for the Somali government to demonstrate its real capacity to deliver basic public services. It is crucial to provide security, health and education to people who have not seen a working government since the collapse of the Somali state in 1991 alongside the Federal Member States.
This stabilisation process will also be running concurrently alongside the ongoing reconciliation and state rebuilding to achieve better governance through inclusive politics in Somalia.
Finishing off Al-Shabaab will be a great political, socio-economic, and moral victory for Somalia and its international partners, as well as providing security, but there is still some way to go yet.
