There are tactical victories, during which the warring parties beef up their positions on a map, and there are strategic victories, that let warring parties to advance their total conflict objectives. Lyman used to be a strategic Ukrainian victory.
For Ukraine, Lyman is on a big rail line extending as much as Kharkiv and, in the end, to Kyiv, and will feed Ukrainian forces east of the Oskil and north of the Siversky Donets rivers. Repairing all rail bridges reconnecting this line will likely be a Ukrainian precedence. Taking down the ones bridges must be a Russian precedence, however they’ll fireplace at civilian condo structures and bus stops as an alternative. That rail line additionally extends right down to Bakhmut thru Sivers’ok, bolstering the ones defenses. Bakhmut isn’t recently bring to an end, however further rail connections makes it tougher for Russia to isolate the town of its obsessions (the one position left the place it continues to press at the offensive).
For Russia, Lyman used to be a stronghold protective its positions within the tri-oblast house (Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk). For the reason that Russia pretends the latter two are actually Mom Russia, their fake boundary is now uncovered to Ukrainian assault, and their scramble to arrange new defensive strains at Kreminna proves they wren’t ready.
Kreminna is the prize of the instant. Take a look at the map—with Kreminna, Ukraine has a instantly shot up to not Svatove, which might release that complete mass of crimson on the most sensible of this map, and likewise presses Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk to the southeast, which Russia captured at huge expense only some months in the past. It’s like a fulcrum, forcing Russia to protect to seriously significance puts immediately, and its significance isn’t misplaced on Russian army pundits.
Warfare legal Igor Girkin:
In line with the ideas gained, the Armed Forces of Ukraine took complete keep an eye on of the village of Torskoye, northeast of Liman. There may be not anything important on this, however now the query arises of maintaining Kremennaya – one of the vital key issues offering the northern flank of the protection of Lisichansk. Not at all must you surrender a flint.
Every other Russian army blogger:
The enemy is on how one can Kremennaya. The sounds of a far off struggle between the federal troops and the Ukrainians are heard within the town. The western outskirts of the town underneath artillery fireplace. The primary blow is predicted from the northwest. The whole selection of enemy forces is estimated via warring parties and commanders at roughly 12,000 folks […]
Nowadays, Russian troops utterly keep an eye on the street from Rubizhne to Kremennaya and the village of Zhitlovka. Chervonopopovka and Peschannoye are a grey house.
Possibly, the plans of the Hohols come with the fast career of Peschannoye, during which the dominant top 160–7 is positioned. Within the match that this top passes underneath enemy keep an eye on, the which means of protection from the east of Kremennaya will likely be misplaced.
Kreminna lies in a valley, surrounded via forested hills as much as 150 meters in elevation on its southern, japanese, and western facets. Now not the tallest hills, however sufficient to permit Ukrainian forces to fireside at will into Russian defensive positions.
As Russian forces reel, everybody has forgotten the party of Russia’s “annexation” of captured Ukrainian territory. Listed below are one of the crucial tactics Russia’s pals are coping:
1) Denying truth
(From Friday, September 30:)
Deluded propagandist Will Shryver, typically prolific, hasn’t posted the rest since Lyman fell on Saturday.
After Lyman’s fall, Giant Serge took his Twitter account personal. This is its personal particular more or less cope.
Those propagandists had been evaluating the present Ukrainian offensive to the Struggle of the Bulge for the reason that get started of the Kharkiv offensive. The analogy isn’t moderately understanding for them.
2. Russia is bleeding Ukraine dry
There may be this bizarre trust that Ukraine misplaced 1000’s of fellows and masses of items of kit within the Lyman attack, but 0 photographic proof of such loses. In case you glance on Telegram, it’s the other. I actually had nightmares remaining night time from one of the crucial video I noticed of the “Highway of lifestyles” out of Lyman, shredded via Ukrainian artillery as Russian forces desperately attempted to get out. Don’t cross in search of it, I promise. I gained’t even describe one of the crucial stuff I noticed, and please, don’t upload or describe in feedback.
3. Guys, it’s alright. Other folks nonetheless like us!
In truth, they must be offended. That is probably the most fair cope.
Army blogger with 130,000 fans on Telegram:
So, comrades Shoigu and Gerasimov, they need to ask right here, however it kind of feels adore it’s no longer proper they usually’ve been pissing of their pants thus far. Does the president know what is going on? Who stories to him? The place is the availability? The place is Armata? The place is everybody? How did it occur? Fucked up? Bought? The place do you proportion? Have been there in any respect? In line with Izyum, Balakleya, Lyman – why did not they do a rattling factor? Why used to be the course no longer reinforced? Why did not you get ready for 8 months? On mobilization – are you doing this on goal or on goal? Why cannot it’s performed correctly?
Armata is Russia’s latest fashionable struggle tank, which by no means made an look at the battlefield. Others marvel no matter came about to Russia’s vaunted Air Pressure, additionally AWOL for many of the conflict. As to “the place is the availability,” we’ve been asking that query from the primary days of the conflict.
5. Pretend hope
“Now we have gained on account of all the ones issues that haven’t came about and there’s no proof that they are going to!” There may be an excessive amount of hope on Europe “freezing” this iciness, bring to an end from Russian fuel.
So that you can be transparent, Russia gave its best-trained troops shitty Soviet apparatus, to “dispose” of it, and can now give their perfect fashionable equipment to untrained mobilized conscripts?
6. Ukraine is getting an excessive amount of lend a hand!
After all, Russia has been spending $65 billion in line with yr for many years construction its conflict device.
7. Attacking Russian management
Every other model of this cope pretends that Russia is by some means maintaining again:
If best Russia in point of fact fought the conflict, with rockets and missiles and warplanes and brutality, then Russia could be successful. As a substitute, Russia used to be looking to, exams notes, “keep away from killing Ukrainian squaddies.”
8. It used to be NATO, no longer Ukraine
Russians invested such a lot within the narrative of Ukrainians as their “little brothers” incapable of managing the rest on their very own, that the speculation of the arena’s “2nd Military” dropping to them is past comprehension. That’s why Russian state TV keeps showing Malcolm Nance.
9. A dose of truth
In the meantime, this man will quickly in finding himself falling out of a skyscraper window: