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Taking stock of Ukraine’s advances … and Russia’s losses


Ukraine war photos

Ukrainian forces are advancing in all places. Those guys are most probably round Kharkiv.

Take into accout after we’d take a seat right here and communicate, months on finish, about Ukraine “shaping the battlefield” and dream of long term counterattacks? We by no means lacked subjects to talk about, however there was once respiring room to discover subjects in nice intensity. However I really like this higher! 

Mark Sumner tracked territorial adjustments this morning, and all I will be able to upload to this is “Ukraine has more than likely driven additional forward.” This can be a nice visible illustration: 

The animation is incredible. And as @War_Mapper notes, this can be a conservative take. He’s were given over 20 settlements which are rumored liberated, however he’s looking ahead to affirmation. In the meantime, Kherson needs in at the motion: 

This isn’t some random agreement (regardless that this is a tiny one)—it was once a big Russian defensive line. This is dramatic video, from an American gunner, of the liberation: 

Additionally take a look at part II and part III. There may be dramatic pictures of him firing anti-tank rockets at Russian positions from a shifting car as we see go back fireplace land round his car. It’s legitimately wonderful. 

There are rumors (from Russian Telegram) that the defenders on this sector, the twentieth Motorized Rifle Department, have fled their positions and are seeking to pass the Dneiper to get again house. Confidently it’s true! However 0 affirmation as of now.

Going over to Izyum, that is … incomprehensible: 

Ukrainian forces are inside of 5-10 kilometers of Russia’s maximum necessary logistical hub, serving all of the northeastern entrance and in particular Izyum right kind, and but Russian commanders in Izyum despatched troops to die in a strategically inappropriate, tactically unnecessary, dumbass attack on Dovhen’ke (which is now again in Ukrainian palms). 

In different phrases, some fool thinks retaking Dovhen’ke is someway extra necessary than their strategically crucial provide middle at Kupiansk. 

Sure, we’re fortunate that Russian forces are this dumb, however how is it imaginable? Neatly, Russia explicitly prohibits private initiative. Too bad, any individual would possibly get into their head the speculation of overthrowing the tsar, on this case, Vladimir Putin. So some native commander has orders to march south towards Sloviansk, and he’ll stay doing it till advised in a different way. Apart from that his superiors are up round Kupiansk and feature both fled or are lifeless. So he’ll stay expending males, provides, and ammunition on assaults with 0 probability of luck, simply because that’s what he was once ultimate advised. It boggles the thoughts!

I don’t even perceive those day-to-day assaults! Why now not mass males and armor, get a hold of a plan on taking the following goal, educate for that goal, then assault in pressure—you realize, like Ukraine is doing at this time? Mark and I are damaged data in this: Russia’s incapacity to advance with any more or less mass doomed them from the primary week of the warfare. But it surely’s wonderful that we’re nonetheless seeing this taking place seven months in, and that Russia remains to be seeking to push ahead in puts like south of Izyum regardless of the utter loss of strategic causes to take action. Even with Ukraine respiring down Izyum’s neck from the north, provide routes about to be minimize, and those morons nonetheless push south. Improbable!

After the warfare I wish to write a whole guide on Dovhen’ke. It’s this type of nice tale, and “Russia thinks it’s extra necessary than Kupiansk” may well be the most efficient a part of it. 

The picture isn’t delicate, be happy to click on it. I discussed that NATO gadgets move at the offensive with 3 days value of provides. Folks requested if Ukraine can overlap gadgets. That’s what’s taking place right here. Armor gadgets push ahead as their colleagues sit back along with the street, resting as they wait for gas, meals, and ammo vans to achieve them. 

Take specific word of the loss of quilt. Those guys aren’t frightened of both Russian plane or artillery. They’ve overrun Russian artillery positions of their blitzkrieg, and will loosen up within the open. The Russian Air Power has been inexplicable AWOL all warfare.

This was once geolocated right here, at the highway to Shevchenkove (now in Ukrainian palms), pointing east, making an attempt to escape the Ukrainian advance. This was once reportedly a Russian VDV unit—“elite” airborne forces that actually have spent all of the warfare getting spanked. Some analysts have argued that they’ve been grossly misused this warfare—serving as rote infantry as adverse to surprise troops. The argument has some advantage, however remember the fact that they had been used as meant at Hostomel airport close to Kyiv, early within the warfare, and were given spanked there too. So in reality, it simply looks as if they’re now not what they had been cracked as much as be. 

Those are most probably salvageable. Ukraine is getting itself a ton of substances. The day past, they were given themselves six new tanks, 12 armored team of workers carriers, 3 anti-aircraft weapons, 5 artillery weapons, and a few different varied random stuff like vans. Lately, you can add 16 armored infantry cars, 5 artillery weapons, and a number of various vans, anti-aircraft weapons, and many others. 

We’re additionally seeing lots of showed Russian apparatus losses, concept it’s higher to seize them. That’s why best-case situation is Ukraine takes Kupiansk, then coax Russia’s Izyum garrison to give up. Which may be value dozens, if now not masses, of recent items of armor for Ukraine’s military, to not point out saving masses or hundreds of lives (on each side). 

Sure, each side. I’m bored with loss of life. I want movies like this one:

A POW is best-case situation for everybody concerned. Why must Russians or Donbas Ukrainians die for Izyum or Kupiansk or any place, in reality? It behooves Ukraine to regard those POWs properly so phrase spreads that it’s secure to give up. Moreover, given how issues are going, Ukraine is also in place to push into Russian-occupied Donbas earlier than lengthy, and also you without a doubt don’t need that inhabitants to withstand. Consider well-treated Donbas cannon fodder calling their family members again house and pronouncing “the Russians lied to us, we’ve not anything to concern from Ukraine!”

We don’t need those Donbas guys, rebelling towards their commander, deciding they wish to shield their properties: (video has captions)

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Those are long term allies. They’ve observed how a lot better Ukrainians survive the opposite aspect in their border, they’ve observed their Russian commanders loot from the ones properties, they usually’ve observed how callously Russia treats them. 

Severely, why would any of them wish to die for a warfare they care little about? Putin can do his personal loss of life if he cares sufficient. This translation of a Russian Telegram submit displays simply how tough the ones deficient saps have it. Let’s win them over, spare everybody a large struggle over Donbas.

That’s the “Terminator” car Russia presented into the warfare with nice fanfare. Russian Telegram and Twitter replied in orgasmic glee. However … yeah, no matter. The title was once extra terrifying than the rest. And now Ukraine has one in all their very own. 

That’s a MLRS M270 in Balakliya. If Ukraine is using these items round in a the town they took the previous day, in sunlight, it way 1) the entrance traces are properly ahead of right here, and a couple of) there’s no Russian air presence. Those are a long way too treasured to possibility, so Ukraine isn’t feeling that is dangerous. 

Additionally word the loss of OPSEC calls for from Ukraine. In Kherson, it was once OPSEC OPSEC OPSEC. “Don’t have a look at the elephant!” Consequently, everybody was once staring arduous at Kherson seeking to determine what was once occurring. Together with, it seems that, Russia, as Ukraine introduced its wonder Kharkiv offensive. Even that tale claiming US and Ukraine war-gamed other situations and determined a single-front counter-attack made essentially the most sense was once most probably intentional bullshit. 

Ukraine pulled off essentially the most masterful misdirection since … D-Day? Severely, I wager we’ll be told that Ukraine laid out its armor in Kherson area in vast view of Russian satellites and drones, whilst hiding them sparsely round Kharkiv. 

Those are my favourite movies:

Any other one: 

I’m now not crying it’s allergic reactions! And to make that video even extra wonderful, the warriors are talking Ukrainian, the ladies are talking Russian. It in reality does put an emphasis at the lie that Russia is simply attempting to offer protection to Russian audio system. 

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Ha ha however after all. It’s only a redeployment! No less than they are now not pretending it’s a “goodwill gesture.” 

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Ukraine were given masses of those M113s. A whole lot of international locations had them, which is most probably why the USA determined to ship the ones as a substitute of extra fashionable Bradleys. Factor is, they arrived months in the past. So once more, props to the heroic territorial protection forces that held the entrance traces all that point, permitting Ukraine to correctly educate at the new apparatus, together with on techniques to ultimate make the most of them. I will be able to’t consider the distress of sitting in trenches below relentless bombardment, however none of this lately would’ve been imaginable had the ones traces collapsed. Those gadgets would’ve needed to been rushed into motion earlier than they had been able. 

Ukraine picked a great time to begin successful large:

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Not anything motivates donors to dig further deep than successful. Ukraine has confirmed it may effectively use what it has won—even older-generation stuff like M113s. Good fortune breeds luck, and there’s little question now that Ukraine gets maximum of what it wishes. 




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