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Omicron: After Gauteng, THREE MORE provinces ‘appear to have peaked’


Dec 19, 2021

The uncertainty around the fourth wave of COVID-19 in South Africa is far from over, as each region remains on its own individual trajectory. However, the latest data from outside of Gauteng now suggests that several other provinces will follow the lead of the world’s ‘Omicron hot-spot’ – as case growth elsewhere ALSO appears to be steadying.

It’s not just Gauteng: Omicron cases ‘dropping elsewhere’

As we head into our festive holidays, the situation could still change. But based on the numbers we have here, Gauteng no longer has a monopoly on the ‘optimism’ associated with the Omicron surge.

Cases exploded in GP around a month ago. Scientists quickly determined that a new variant was behind the sudden and sharp rise, and the eyes of the world were focused on South Africa’s most densely populated province.

With many fearing a COVID-19 crisis worse than our bleak, Delta-fuelled winter season, those concerns simply never materialised in Gauteng. It now looks like other provinces are set to follow suit.

What provinces are seeing a decline in Omicron cases?

Sugan Naidoo, a South African data modeller, crunched the all-important numbers on Sunday. Gauteng’s new infection numbers continue to tumble, and a peak has been established there.

But North West, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo all appear to be turning the same corner. The seven-day average for daily reported cases in these regions has dropped enough to alert the experts.

The brown, green, orange lines – representing North West, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo respectively – all appear to be heading downwards… in line with the trends already spotted in Gauteng. (Photo: Sugan Naidoo / Twitter)

Gauteng, other provinces see average COVID cases decline

However, caution remains king. At least for now, anyway. Plenty of South Africans will be travelling between provinces in the next few days, and as is usually the case at this time of year, people will be attending large gatherings and meeting in groups. There may be one last twist in the Omicron tale waiting for us.

But South Africa can only report on the data that is available in the here and now. And, as we start the week leading up to Christmas, there are plenty of encouraging signs that our hospitals won’t be overwhelmed any time soon.

7 day ave. of new cases

• GP definitely past its peak, it’s been going down for a good few days now
• NW, MP & LP also look like they may have peaked but just need a few more days to be sure
• KZN, WC & EC still going up but look to be slowing pic.twitter.com/zcrvQANqFU

— sugan naidoo (@sugan2503) December 19, 2021

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