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‘This is an all-time low’: ANC left ROCKED by new election poll

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Oct 31, 2021

It’s the sort of poll that would knock any political party sick on the eve of a major election – but the ANC is now facing up to the reality that they are on course to record their worst-ever performance in South Africa’s democratic history.

Latest polls for the 2021 Local Elections

After rising to power in 1994, the ANC’s displacement of the National Party and the system of apartheid won plaudits worldwide. But after that initial dizzying victory, things turned sour in the 21st century. The ruling party has been plagued by accusations of corruption, poor service delivery, and awful governance.

For the first time in almost three decades, the public frustration with the organisation will likely be reflected at the ballot boxes: The latest poll from IPSOS, released just hours before voting opens in the 2021 Local Elections, shows that the ANC is all-but-guaranteed to fetch fewer than 50% of all votes across the electorate.

As IPSOS politely puts it, this is ‘a phenomenon that has not been seen before’.

“Support for the ruling party is at an all-time low. In recent pre-election surveys, support for the ANC has been measured consistently below 50% – a phenomenon not seen before. However, the period since the 2019 national and provincial elections was not easy for any political party in South Africa.”

IPSOS

ANC set for ‘awful’ election performance – IPSOS

The latest IPSOS poll looks at a number of variables, including the scale of voter turnout, and the responses of all registered voters. Bizarrely, one survey showed that ‘voter apathy’ was more popular than ANY other political party – but this perhaps isn’t the best way to reflect how things are likely to play out on Monday.

Column two, which focuses on the responses of all registered voters who WILL go to polling stations on 1 November, gives us a more accurate reading – and it’s bad news for the ANC. They are tracking at 43.4% of the national vote – a total significantly lower than anything they have EVER recorded before, in the last 27 years of elections.

DA to lose votes, as EFF go marching on

The DA would also lose voters from their 2016 performance, but polling at nearly 25% wouldn’t be a terrible result for a party that has endured a turbulent election campaign this time out. Oh, and have a look at the EFF, would you? They are forecast to push the 15% mark – charting more substantial growth in support for the Red Berets.

Photo: IPSOS

Local Elections: New opinion poll puts ANC on backfoot

ActionSA, contesting their first-ever elections, are now threatening to occupy the space as South Africa’s ‘fourth-biggest political party’. Early data suggests that the Herman Mashaba-led group could get up to 3.7% of the vote.

So much hinges on voter turnout for Monday, though – and again, the ANC is vulnerable here: IPSOS predicts that both a high OR a low voter turnout could drag the party below 40% of national support. That scenario would mean the reverse for the DA, however, who would benefit from any sort of ‘abnormal’ numbers in this department.

“Looking at the outcomes of the model, the most probable outcome will be between the medium and the high voter turnout scenarios. The performance of political parties is influenced fundamentally by different turnout outcomes.

“For instance, a low turnout scenario will be to the benefit of the DA, and the detriment of the ANC. The model is not linear and different scenario’s influence different parties differently.”

IPSOS

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